With Thanksgiving upon us, we’re entering the home stretch of the NFL regular season. So what are the most important games of Week 12?One way of looking at this — as we did in 2014 — is to figure out how much every game affects each team’s playoff chances. We do this by using the model behind our 2016 NFL predictions to calculate each team’s playoff “swing” based on a game outcome. For example, we estimate that if Oakland beats Carolina, the Raiders’ playoff chances will rise to 88 percent from 81 percent. If they lose, their chances will drop to 70 percent — an 18 percentage point swing.1 Some detail on what this means. Our NFL predictions are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season and are updated after every game ends. In the simulations in which Oakland beats Carolina, the Raiders make the playoffs 88 percent of the time. In the simulations in which they lose, they make the playoffs 70 percent of the time. But at the end of Week 12, it’s unlikely that Oakland’s playoff probabilities will be exactly 88 percent or exactly 70 percent, because the team’s chances depend on the outcome of several games, not just their own. Carolina’s chances would see a more modest swing (rising to 17 percent from 9 percent if the Panthers win and falling to 4 percent if they lose); Buffalo, Atlanta, Miami and several other contenders could also see their probabilities change.By summing up these individual swings, we can get sense of which games will make the largest total impact league-wide. Here are this week’s top five, ranked by total swing: CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS AFFECTED TEAMCURRENTIF MIN WINSIF DET WINSSWING The NFC North is on the line, and, for once, the Packers aren’t involved. Going into 2016, Green Bay had made the playoffs for seven consecutive seasons, winning an average of 11 games each year. So it’s come as some surprise that the Packers have basically played their way out of playoff contention by Week 12 — we give them just a 6 percent chance of making it to the postseason. Rising in their place are the Lions and Vikings. The winner of their game on Thursday will be in strong shape; the loser will be more likely to miss the playoffs than make them. 5. Kansas City (7-3) vs. Denver (7-3) — 66 total ���swing’ points Arizona1122418– 1. Minnesota (6-4) vs. Detroit (6-4) — 101 total ‘swing’ points Pittsburgh55%70%42%28– AFFECTED TEAMCURRENTIF PIT WINSIF IND WINSSWING Only teams with a playoff swing of at least 2 percentage points based on the game outcome shown Only teams with a playoff swing of at least 2 percentage points based on the game outcome shown Kansas City83967322– According to the Elo ratings that our NFL predictions are based on, the five best teams in the AFC are New England, Kansas City, Denver, Buffalo and Oakland — all in the East or West divisions. Since it’s looking unlikely that the AFC South or North will produce a wild-card team, Steelers-Colts will go a long way toward determining two divisional playoff spots and not much else.Indianapolis is in a rough position because of a bit of karmic payback: Although the Colts have outperformed their point differential the past few seasons, the Texans (6-4, outscored by 34 points) are managing the same feat this year. The Colts will need some help to win the AFC South even with a win. The Steelers, meanwhile, have a slightly better point differential than the Ravens, with whom they’re tied for first in the North, but it’s come against a slightly easier schedule. Pittsburgh is a good bet to make it in with a win, and not all the way out of it with a loss. 2. Pittsburgh (5-5) vs. Indianapolis (5-5) — 96 total ‘swing’ points CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS New Orleans101285– CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS Cincinnati1592111– Despite a narrow lead in the NFC South, the Falcons are in stronger shape than they may seem to be. Elo thinks Atlanta is way better than 5-5 Tampa Bay and 4-6 New Orleans, and although the Panthers still rank high (by Elo), they’re unlikely to win a division tiebreaker and their remaining schedule is rough. That means that if Atlanta wins on Sunday, the Falcons will make a pretty big playoff jump — and if they lose, their NFC South rivals make only modest gains. Washington, which currently holds the second wild-card spot in the NFC, would prefer that Arizona all but end its playoff hunt with a loss. AFFECTED TEAMCURRENTIF ARI WINSIF ATL WINSSWING This is another big game toward determining the AFC North winner. Cincinnati is very much alive despite its 3-6-1 record and even though star receiver A.J. Green is out with a hamstring injury for the next few weeks — the Bengals would improve to a roughly 1-in-3 chance of making the playoffs with a win here. Baltimore can make similar gains, and Pittsburgh, which has beaten Cincinnati but lost to the Ravens in Week 9, would rather the Bengals win. Pittsburgh5559527– Oakland8182803– Washington5653585– Minnesota65894643– Cincinnati1529524– Carolina91274– Only teams with a playoff swing of at least 2 percentage points based on the game outcome shown Denver76%58%89%30– 3. Arizona (4-5-1) vs. Atlanta (6-4) — 70 total ‘swing’ points AFFECTED TEAMCURRENTIF KC WINSIF DEN WINSSWING AFFECTED TEAMCURRENTIF CIN WINSIF BAL WINSSWING Only teams with a playoff swing of at least 2 percentage points based on the game outcome shown CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS Houston80867412– 4. Cincinnati (3-6-1) vs. Baltimore (5-5) — 68 total ‘swing’ points Tampa Bay1519136– Detroit58%32%79%46– Miami2931283– Indianapolis22123119– N.Y. Giants6667653– CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS Only teams with a playoff swing of at least 2 percentage points based on the game outcome shown Baltimore32%14%46%32– Buffalo2627252– Atlanta78%64%87%23– Baltimore32243814– The Broncos have already lost to the Raiders, who sit on top of the AFC West at 8-2. A loss to the Chiefs would put Denver in a dangerous situation, at risk of losing a division tiebreaker or a wild-card tiebreaker (or both!) to an AFC West rival. A Denver loss would have a pretty big impact: Since 1995, 7-4 teams have made the playoffs 68 percent of the time, but we’d give the 7-4 Broncos just a 58 percent chance if the Chiefs knock them off.CORRECTION (Nov. 23, 2:10 p.m.): A footnote in an earlier version of this article said incorrectly that FiveThirtyEight’s NFL prediction model does not project ties and gave an incorrect number of simulations in which the Oakland Raiders and the Carolina Panthers were projected to win their game on Sunday. In 100,000 simulations of the NFL season, Oakland was projected to win the game 58,042 times, not 57,955, and Carolina was projected to win 41,791 times, not 42,045.Check out our latest NFL predictions.
DEPUTY GOVERNOR PROMISES MORE EFFICIENT SERVICE IN GOVERNMENT Invest Turks and Caicos launches tonight Related Items:Enhancing National Competitiveness Conference, invest tci Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsAppProvidenciales, TCI, June 1, 2016 – Members of the Invest Turks and Caicos (Invest TCI) team has spent the past three weeks promoting these Islands as an attractive destination for foreign investment at regional conferences, summits and roadshows..The team attended the Caribbean Hotel & Resort Investment Summit (CHRIS) in Miami Florida, May 10-11, the Annual Caribbean Investment Summit (CIS), also in Miami on May 12-13th and the 3rd Annual Premier’s Roadshow, May 22nd-27th which saw the team visiting five major US cities over the time period.During their attendance at these events, The Invest TCI team met with numerous investors, developers, government officials, major hotel chains and management groups as well as fellow Investment Promotion Agencies from around the region. The events were a great way to meet investors and network with industry associates. An Investment Opportunities presentation and cocktail hosted by Invest TCI as part of the Premier’s Roadshow in New York City proved to be particularly beneficial for the Agency. The private event saw the attendance of a dozen high profile investors who learnt more about the investment climate in the Islands and also met the Premier, Honourable Dr. Rufus Ewing who was present at the cocktail reception and opened the event. Representatives of Grace Bay Resorts were also present and were able to provide first-hand experience of operating a business on the islands.“We are confident that we have accomplished our goal at these events”, said John Rutherford, CEO of Invest Turks and Caicos. ‘’We set out to let the investment community know the Turks and Caicos Islands are open for business investment and that Invest TCI is ready to facilitate and streamline new investments into the country. “There is no doubt that the Turks & Caicos islands are known for its white sandy beaches and crystal clear waters, however, there is work to be done in promoting the islands as a destination for investment and we were able to achieve that through networking, one on one meetings and our own investor event.The Invest TCI team will continue to promote the islands at targeted industry events throughout the year with the aim of encouraging international investors and developers to invest in the Turks and Caicos.For more information on Invest Turks and Caicos, visit the website at investturksandcaicos.tc. Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp Recommended for you Turks and Caicos Islanders will lead new Invest TCI board
Budget carrier AirAsia’s Indian arm on Sunday launched a week-long sale offer for its entire network with one-way tickets at prices as low as ₹699, including taxes.The offer comes as part of the Malaysia-based parent company’s ‘Big Sale’ with three million promotional seats on its network from Kuala Lumpur, with the starting fare of ₹2,599 for international flights operated by AirAsia Berhad and Thai AirAsia, the airline said in a statement.AirAsia’s offer of ₹2,599 would be available on flights from Chennai, Kochi, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Tiruchirappalli and Hyderabad to Kuala Lumpur operated by AirAsia Berhad and Chennai to Bangkok flown by Thai AirAsia, the release added.AirAsia India is offering an all inclusive one-way fare starting from ₹699 for flights from Bengaluru to Chennai, Kochi, Goa, Jaipur and Chandigarh and vice versa.Tickets can be booked on Airasia’s website from Sunday night till Nov 16, for travel period from June 10 next year to Jan 17, 2016, the company said.”The ‘Big Sale’ offer would allow our guests to plan their travel early with extremely low fares,” said AirAsia India chief executive Mittu Chandilya.
.Road accidents claim nine to 20 lives every day in the country but the government has no updated figures to address the situation.A total of 3,079 people were killed in road crashes in the past one year, says a report compiled by Prothom Alo.Statistics produced by several private organisations show the number of the victims of road accidents increased recently, compared to the figures shown in official reports.The government has fixed a target of reducing deaths in road accidents to half from the current level in line with the UN objectives, said Moazzem Hossain, director of road accident research institute at Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology.It’s not clear how such goal will be attained when there is no accurate figure of deaths from road accidents, he pointed out.A total of 7,397 people lost lives in road accidents, meaning 20 such death per day, in 2017, according to Bangladesh Passengers’ Welfare Association. Nirapad Sarak Chai (We Demand Safe Road) put the figure at 5,645 or 15 deaths per day.The Bangladesh Police is yet to publish the report on the number of victims of road accidents in the past year.However, the police reports on the road crashes in the previous years show the average number of deaths in a range between 2,000 and 2,500.Moazzem Hossain regretted that most of the persons who died of road accidents were younger ones and earning members of the families.Unfortunately, such losses would be equal to 2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) of the country. There is no scope to urgently address this as its a national loss in all respect, he added.*This report, originally published in Prothom Alo print edition, has been rewritten in English by Nusrat Nowrin.
NHRCNational Human Rights Commission (NHRC) chairman Kazi Reazul Hoque on Tuesday claimed that Sunday’s general election was held in a free, fair and neutral manner.”All (parties) took part in the election. Voters had been able to vote for the candidates of their choice. So, the election was free, fair and neutral,” he said while addressing a press conference at the NHRC office in the city.The NHRC chief said no one quit the election race although there were some allegations before the election. “As a result, the election was participatory and it was held in a peaceful atmosphere.”About the arrangement of the national election under a party government, he said the election should be held under the party government every time. “Violence marks a sharp rise and everyone can cast their vote fairly (if election is held under party govt) which never happened in the past.””Although the elections were being held under a caretaker government since 1991, the intensity of violence was higher in the past. But this time, we heard no violence of that dimension. So, I think the election should be held under the party government in the future,” Reazul said.He claimed that there was no allegation of any casualty and violation of human rights during the election although they learned from media reports that 14 people were killed in election violence.”I’ve visited a number of polling stations in Dhaka but saw no incident of human rights violation,” the NHRC chairman said, adding that he found the agents of opposition candidates in all the centres except a few.According to UNB correspondents, at least 18 people were killed in violence on the election day across the country.Reazul said they received a total of 52 allegations of threat and obstructing voters from going to centres before, during and after the election and informed the Election Commission which took action in this regard.Answering a question about the ‘gang rape’ of a housewife in Noakhali for voting for an opposition candidate, he said they will investigate the incident.The 11th Parliamentary elections were held amid huge allegations of irregularities, including vote-rigging and capturing of polling stations by ruling party men.
A powerful 7.5 earthquake that jolted Afghanistan, Pakistan and India on Monday was also strongly felt in parts of northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.Residents of Kashgar, Hotan, Aksu and Kizilsu in southern Xinjiang felt the quake and many ran out of their homes. “First, we felt a minor quake and then a strong one. People rushed out of their buildings to open ground,” Kashgar resident Feng Zhuoyi said, adding that she felt dizzy when the tremor struck. Also Read – Nine hurt in accident at fireworks show in French resortHowever, there have been no reports of casualties or collapsed houses in Xinjiang, fire service officials told state-run Xinhua new agency. At least 105 people were killed and over 1,000 others injured on Monday as a strong 7.5 earthquake rocked northern Pakistan. The quake’s epicentre was located near Jurm in northeast Afghanistan, 250 kilometres from Kabul and at a depth of 213.5 kms, according to the US Geological Survey.
Not long after planting her first vegetable garden, Kristee Rosendahl realized she was spending most of her time indoors researching gardening topics, not actually digging in the dirt. “I had a stack of gardening books a mile high, but it wasn’t helping me figure out what was best for my garden,” she recalls. Her need for a hyperlocal resource led Rosendahl, a user-experience designer at Apple, to develop Smart Gardener, an online tool for planning and managing one’s vegetable patch. Users enter their ZIP code, garden size and household size, and the program aggregates historical weather statistics from a national database to make recommendations for the best vegetables for the climate and when to plant. It also provides a week-to-week guide for maintaining one’s garden through the growing season. For example, gardeners who want to plant tomatoes will receive recommendations about which varieties will produce the best results in their area; data can be narrowed further, limiting suggestions to, say, heirloom varieties or those that perform well in containers or partial shade.After testing the program in her garden in Sonoma County, Calif., Rosendahl recognized its potential as a business. “There was so much buzz about sustainability and local food systems, and technology was getting much more sophisticated,” she explains. She decided to release Smart Gardener as a free service. Her hope? To build a robust audience as proof of concept, then figure out how to monetize. Since she launched in 2012, more than 250,000 people have created accounts at smartgardener.com, making it the leading U.S. gardening website. Armed with that user base, Rosendahl has introduced small add-ons and apps, ranging in price from $0.99 to $4.99, that include a guide to growing berries and a harvest calculator. The site has also partnered with seed companies and retailers, including Southern Exposure Seed Exchange and Peaceful Valley Farm & Garden Supply, to generate revenue from affiliate e-commerce sales. Although she declined to disclose revenue, Rosendahl estimates that 25 percent of users purchase add-ons or products from Smart Gardener’s partners.Smart Garden PlanImage credit: www.smartgardener.comLast year Rosendahl created a B2B product, Smart Backyard, designed to help landscapers use the technology to help with garden planning and maintenance and improve customer communication. For example, after a landscaper has completed a list of recommended chores, an auto-generated newsletter is emailed to clients. With demand for Smart Gardener and Smart Backyard continuing to grow, Rosendahl believes she can expand her empire beyond the garden in the coming years. Among her plans are complementary services such as Smart Chickens, Smart Beekeeping and Smart Orchardist. “We want to be part of the whole smart-home movement,” she says. “Smart Gardener is the first step.” 3 min read Free Webinar | Sept 5: Tips and Tools for Making Progress Toward Important Goals March 9, 2015 This story appears in the March 2015 issue of Entrepreneur. Subscribe » Attend this free webinar and learn how you can maximize efficiency while getting the most critical things done right. Register Now »